Tel. +44 (0)20 7287 4414
Email. info@brugesgroup.com
Tel. +44 (0)20 7287 4414
Email. info@brugesgroup.com
The Bruges Group spearheaded the intellectual battle to win a vote to leave the European Union and, above all, against the emergence of a centralised EU state.
The Bruges Group spearheaded the intellectual battle to win a vote to leave the European Union and, above all, against the emergence of a centralised EU state.
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Bruges Group Blog

Spearheading the intellectual battle against the EU. And for new thinking in international affairs.

Would Brexit Impact the Gambling Industry?

Gambling
When we hear about gambling as it relates to Brexit, it's typically regarding betting on different outcomes. Inevitably, there have in fact been betting markets these past few years aimed at predicting when Brexit might happen, what it might look like, etc. What doesn't get as much attention though is the idea of what effect Brexit could have on th...
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The Swiss Stand Firm Against the EU Bureaucracy

Swiss-and-EU
Switzerland and the European Union have begun open financial war with each other as the EU tries to force the country to sign the proposed Framework Agreement covering all aspects of the country's relations with the EU. The EU has been forced into a hardball approach to Switzerland because with Brexit still unresolved it cannot afford to be weak. I...
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How Leaving the EU is the Only Way to Carry Out Democracy

Brexit-Democracy
By now we should have left the EU. Vast swathes of people are incensed. But it is evident that Brexit will only be delivered if the people move to enforce it by neutering an obstructionist parliament. Nothing good will happen until parliament is overwhelmed by the people's desire to leave. Left to its own devices parliament is too much the instrume...
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It Isn't the Government's Job to Frighten the Public

Whitehall---Downing-Street
The duty of government is to obey the will of the Nation. To paraphrase that which Professor Dicey said, referring to "the grand principle underlying the conventional precepts of the constitution, in "The Law of the Constitution [i] ": "… neither the Crown [which I take to mean the Government] nor any servant of the Crown ever refuses obedienc...
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The EU, Brexit and Employment Market

Employment-Market-cover
PDF to full report ​ Where Unemployment Really Is Before the referendum in 2016 we were told by George Osborne and the Treasury, among others, that 820,000 jobs alone would be lost as a consequence of a Leave vote, causing "an immediate economic shock" but here we are over three years later and unemployment is at its lowest for over 40 years. Those...
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John Poynton
The significant labour shortages that have developed since the referendum arise because the government has failed to match demand ... Read More
Wednesday, 17 July 2019 16:06
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How Maggie Was Right About The EU Decades Ago

Margaret-Thatcher-on-EU
As the Conservatives elect their replacement for Theresa May over the summer, it's worth looking back to see how crucial it is for a leader that is in line with grassroots views, and currently Euroscepticism is the overwhelming grassroots position among members. Ever since the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1992 there has been a battle for a refer...
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Why we Should be Focusing on AI post-Brexit

AI
​ Artificial Intelligence is certainly an area of focus post Brexit, the sector of AI was worth around $1.2 trillion as of around 2018 with predictions from Zdnet.com estimating the growth of the AI business values to around $3.9 trillion by 2022, that's a huge amount for any sector; this roughly equates to a forecasted prediction of just over £3 t...
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Labour Shortages

The Government's Migration Advisory Committee wants to increase the number of jobs on the list aimed at plugging gaps in the UK labour market. Jobs on the Shortage Occupation List are effectively allowed to jump the queue for workers from outside the European Economic Area. Their review said there should be a big expansion of jobs on the list. Unde...
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Why Sovereignty Matters

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  The evolution of sovereign states around the world has been an uneven process. Some were founded on shared nationhood, language and culture. Some on lines drawn by colonial rulers. Others out of the chaos of war. But sovereign states have this in common: they are all that now stands between the peoples of the world and utter domination by th...
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Just Leave!

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  Through the treachery of the government and MPs, Britain is in political and economic limbo. Instead of being free to taking back control, they have handed the future of the country over to the EU… Delay, and more delay. Britain is now going to be denied independence for up to 6 months longer, a total of three-and-a-half years after voting f...
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Fruit, Fear and Brexit

At the end of January, I was interested to learn how the BBC's news website reported Italy's recession. It was not on their radar. Unsurprisingly, several scare stories were. One, by business editor Simon Jack, was headlined "No-deal Brexit to leave shelves empty warn retailers." My attention was grabbed, however, by a dramatic warning with a state...
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Less than a month before the deadline, good Brexit news continues

No other issue in recent history has been as divisive as Brexit. And after the historic leave vote in June 2016, the nation has been inundated with one doomsday headline after another — from economic devastation to the loss of trade, and investment. Despite all of these issues, however, Brexit is now closing in on its March 29 deadline day. Of cour...
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United States of Europe

The EU is not a market, it is a political project of becoming a single European state, the United States of Europe, as the powers-that-be in the EU have always wanted it to become. The three founding fathers of European union all called for a single European state. Konrad Adenauer said, "My dream is that one day we might be able to applaud a United...
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Nissan, Felixstowe, Lettuces and Whisky

I am sure we all understand the situation Nissan and other companies which export a majority of their UK production to the Eurozone will find themselves in after Brexit. They will face 10% tariffs by the EU on these exports, and it stands to commercial reason they would then be better off re-locating their production into the Eurozone, where they w...
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Economic Impact of UK Trade with the EU and Non EU Countries 2000 - 2017

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY by Roger Kendrick As the negotiations with the EU approach the October 2018 decision point, the Chequers proposals are being promoted on the generally accepted premise that the UK economy, and manufacturing industry in particular, has benefited from access to the Single Market. For this contention to be valid, the UK economy ...
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THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE FOR A NO-DEAL BREXIT

Any sort of trade deal with the EU is bound to result in economic meltdown. Here's how and why.   Author: John Poynton This graph shows our Balance of Payments Current Account – in effect our national profit and loss account, comprising mainly but not exclusively of trade – split into two separate components; our trade with the EU (the red lin...
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John Poynton
Trying to get this fixed. Will also post the original leaflet on my own blog later today.
Friday, 23 November 2018 12:54
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The Brexit Game Changer – Import Excess Tax

  A policy model for a clean Brexit - no queues at Dover, no Irish hard border Membership of the EU Customs Union and the (largely contrived) Irish border issue are once more on the front pages. After success in the Lords, Remainers smell blood and are slavering at the prospect of defeating the Government in forthcoming Commons votes. Given th...
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Political Economics in the USSR and EU

Since the late 1970s, I had been travelling and doing business in the Soviet bloc and USSR. Soon after its collapse, I was working for a German company, responsible for its major interests in Ukraine and development in Central Asia. The fall of the USSR was sudden and to the ill informed, unexpected. Those of us who knew it, had wondered for years ...
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Meltdown in Turkey - an omen for the Euro

Gresham was a 17th century banker and trader, after whom Greshams, the North Norfolk Public school is named. Mr Gresham is most famous for 'Gresham's law' which states that, 'Bad money drives out good.' In Gresham's time of coins, it meant that, one would always spend a 'fake' coin or one with less precious metal content and keep the good ones; a b...
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Is the Euro going to collapse?

The Euro is a currency. That would seem blindingly obvious, but it means that there are two ways in which the Euro could collapse and one way in which it could get massively stronger. A currency is not just a means of exchange for goods and services within a country, it is also an asset that has a shifting value against other currencies, that is, t...
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Dragi doesn’t understand how the bond markets are dangerous

Author:CATHERINE BLAIKLOCK Would you like to lend to the German government and get paid a grand total of 0.43% a year for 10 years? Or how about lending to the French government and getting 0.73% or to the Spanish government at 1.35%? An annual yield of 1.35% a year, lending to Spain and you are invested for 10 years. Doesn't sound very good, does ...
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“Global Britain” - How industry is part of this bright future

"I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." So said Ronald Reagan during the 1984 presidential debates when asked if, at 73, he was too old to be President. We might make the following quip about our country, where once flag followed trade, trade now follo...
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The Euro’s Battle for Survival

eurozonemap
  Entering the Red Zone In this paper, Bob Lyddon explores the various caveats and consequences of the Eurozone's survival and continuation, and discusses the UK's role in or alongside the Eurosystem post-Brexit. As an expert in international banking, Lyddon works through his own consultancy company, Lyddon Consulting Services, and has written...
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Financial Services and Brexit

​Project Fear scaremongered more about financial services than anything else during the EU referendum campaign and this scaremongering has unfortunately continued after the Brexit vote. Remoaners and soft Brexiteers (those who want us to remain members of the European single market after Brexit) now tell us that the reason why there was not an imme...
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Freedom of Movement and the Cruelty of the Euro

To escape the damage caused by the euro, and the resulting problems of mass migration, Brexit is essential for the UK

9th January 2017
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Summary

 

1.      The euro prevents EU countries with weak economies using currency exchange rates to adjust their competitiveness within and external to the EU.  The EU therefore has a policy of  ‘rebalancing’, or ‘internal devaluation’.  Rebalancing relies on the failure of uncompetitive industries.   The result is unemployment, lower wages and lower prices together with austerity justified by high levels of sovereign debt.  These pressures on the population are intended to force the creation of competitive trading industries and reduce non-trading activities.

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Will Donald Trump save or kill the Euro?

The EU's single currency, the Euro, is being unbalanced by the strength of the German economy. The undervalued Euro is used by Germany in a beggar-thy-neighbour policy to expand its exports; hurting not just the other members of the Eurozone but also countries further afield, including the United States. If the USA forces Germany to abandon this policy, it will mean Germany leaving the Euro. This will either be the end of the single currency experiment, or its salvation.

4th January 2017

During the election campaign Donald Trump highlighted a structural flaw in the US economy, namely, the country’s huge structural trade deficit, which he claimed is hurting many Americans.  Trump’s message was very simple: if instead of importing products the US exported them there would be more highly paid jobs in the US. Trump claimed that not all of the US’s trading partners are trading fairly with the US.  The implication being that some countries are taking US jobs unfairly.  Angela Merkel was clearly worried about this rhetoric.  Although Trump did not name Germany, she is clearly concerned that Germany will be exposed as having an unfair trading advantage with the US because it is benefitting from an under-valued Euro. 


Although no one would claim that Germany abandoned the Deutschemark in favour of the Euro in 1999 to gain an unfair trading advantage, this is undeniably what has happened.   As can be seen from the following table this has increased Germany’s current account surplus with the rest of the world.


Germany’s exports are now 30-35% cheaper in US dollars than they would have been if the country had retained the Deutschmark. This calculation is based on the assumption that the Deutschmark would have maintained its value against the Swiss franc.  And, it ignores the fact that Switzerland has intervened in the foreign exchange markets from time to time to depress the value of the Swiss franc against the US dollar and other currencies.   The Euro has become a disguised form of protectionism for the German economy, by making its exports cheaper and imports more expensive. Moreover, this is not a problem that is likely to disappear. The longer the Euro exists, at least in its current form, the greater the problem will become.  The question is what, if anything, will the new Trump Administration do about Germany’s unfair trading advantage and its ever growing current account surplus with the US. 

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Recent Comments
Robert Oulds
Germany has been amongst the biggest distorters of world trade unbalancing the Euro, even breaking the EU's rules in their search ... Read More
Thursday, 05 January 2017 13:12
Robert Oulds
You are right, Germany (Angela Merkel) complains about him. She is trying to position herself as the last line of defence against ... Read More
Thursday, 05 January 2017 19:35
Robert Oulds
Thank you
Monday, 30 January 2017 09:32
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The Obsession with Regulation

The European Commission does not just propose regulation affecting its own internal market but also aggressively seeks to export its rules beyond its own borders

15th November 2016
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The European Commission predicted that the once much-heralded Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will boost EU GDP by 0.5% which will annually add €120 billion to the economy.[i] The gains seem significant but they represent little more than a rounding error in the calculation of economic output.


The speculative benefits are unlikely to be realised. TTIP is effectively dead. Its future looked bleak even before Bernie Sanders rose to prominence in the United States, acting as the bête noire of corporate interests, and long before the election of Donald J Trump. It was EU intransigence on regulatory issues that caused the gridlock and not the public’s overwhelming opposition to the Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS); the courts where nation-states can be sued and punished for policies detrimental
to corporate interests.

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The Challenge to George Osborne and £350 million to the EU each week?

EU membership is the biggest risk to the public finances. In these two films young people explain what our politicians have failed to grasp.

Paulina and Ben plus Emma and Jo
18th June 2016
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Paulina and Ben (15) challenge George Osborne on EU sovereign debt and how a Remain vote will leave them liable for massive payments.

Mr Osborne - if you think we are wrong come and explain how we are safe. That is our challenge.

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The UK’s liabilities to the financial mechanisms of the European Union

The UK’s potential exposure to the EU is over £80 billion.

Bob Lyddon
16th June 2016

Independent research, commissioned by the Bruges Group from acknowledged expert in this field Bob Lyddon, shows that the true extent of the UK’s potential exposure to the European Investment Bank (EIB), European Central Bank (ECB) and EFSM (European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism) is over £80 billion. If the crisis in the Eurozone continues this already high figure could increase massively.

The UK carries huge financial liabilities as an EU Member State, liabilities that could translate into calls for cash far higher than our annual Member cash contribution. These are created through various funds and facilities of the EU itself, and through shareholdings in the European Investment Bank and the European Central Bank. Each of these bodies engages in financial dealings on a large scale, with the Member States acting as guarantors for sums borrowed. The main recipients of funds are the Eurozone periphery states: Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

The UK, being one of the largest and most creditworthy of the Member States, is looked at as one of the guarantors most able to stump up extra cash as and when demanded, demanded, that is, by a Qualified Majority of Member States with no unilateral right of refusal. Such calls can be expected if another crisis blows up in the Eurozone.

The UK’s leaving the EU would relieve us of these considerable risks and liabilities. This independent research shows that Britain should leave the European Union.

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The Business of Hope

We are better off out!

Emma Jane
11th June 2016
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Does Britain face dire consequences if we leave the EU? What is the effect of the EU on business?

This film talks to two businessmen about Brexit and explores the economic issues surrounding the UK's EU membership.

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For Family Businesses

A level playing field for small, medium and family businesses
21st April 2016
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A vote to leave will give us more say over our economy. It is an opportunity to have:
●  Fair taxation, end big business tax avoidance by restoring national control
●  A level playing field for small and medium sized businesses
●  Bolster small businesses
●  Support entrepreneurship
●  Accountable British people helping to make the regulations, not a faceless bureaucrat in Brussels
●  Global trading, better opportunities to open up global markets
●  Access to the single market without our economy being dominated by those countries who make policies in the name of Europe what they will not ask for themselves

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The Future of the euro

An address and question time with Professor Bernd Lucke MEP

18th June 2015
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An address and question time with Professor Bernd Lucke MEP, founder and leader of the Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland) political party which opposes the euro. Recognising that the Single Currency is harming the economy Bernd Lucke MEP will gave a very interesting perspective on the crisis in the eurozone. Professor Lucke discussed the future of the euro.

The Speaker

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Video

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Speech by Bernd Lucke MEP

Address of Event

Committee Room 10
The House of Commons
Westminster
London SW1A 3AA

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