The Bruges Group spearheaded the intellectual battle to win a vote to leave the European Union and, above all, against the emergence of a centralised EU state.

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“Global Britain” - How industry is part of this bright future

"I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience."

So said Ronald Reagan during the 1984 presidential debates when asked if, at 73, he was too old to be President. We might make the following quip about our country, where once flag followed trade, trade now follows flag as we enable a Global Britain with rich opportunities with the our older and special relationship partner country the USA, a new and forthcoming special relationship with the EU, an invigorated one with the other 52 member states of the Commonwealth and those of the Rest of the World. For our trade, diplomatic, defence, security and cultural relationships with them all will determine how successfully we generate enhanced trade and investment opportunities with them and how well we embed distinguishing UK values into a complex world which has never needed the United Kingdom more for its collective and global security.

So what inspires us and how can we celebrate our country, identify those values that distinguish us from others and bind around them? When we do we will identify what our unique offering is both in our society at home and our endeavours abroad and a establish a clear-sighted and long term strategy for the United Kingdom whose source is a national vision and that generates the definition of our national mission that flows from it.

"The Government lacks bandwidth beyond EU Exit".

The set-piece speeches of the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary, the Secretaries of State for International Trade, International Development and Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy suggest otherwise. They contain the finest collective political thought that we have seen in this country for 45 years. They express this country's achievements and our possibilities well: the powerful "Global Britain" narrative by the PM; the invigorating "unflinching resolve of the British Government and people" by the Foreign Secretary, the enabling "prosperity-stability-security-global security continuum" of DIT's Secretary of State, the "diplomacy-defence-development trinity" of DFID's Secretary of State and how our "Industrial Strategy provides a landmark opportunity for the UK to make fresh choices about how its economy develops" by the Secretary of State at BEIS.

Exports of Goods & Services comprise 30% of our GDP – a far lower figure than average. So it may surprise to learn in the following how high we are in global rankings and where we could be if we increased it. But as business leaders imagine what we could do if we doubled or tripled the 9% of UK companies currently exporting at all.

UK Trade Summary

  • UK GDP £2,050 bn
  • UK total trade £1,272 bn = 62% GDP
  • Comprising Goods £820 bn and Services £452 bn
  • Value of UK Exports £622 bn and UK Imports £650 bn
  • Trade Deficit = 1.4% of GDP
  • UK Outward FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) £1,212 bn (grown every year since 2007 when it was £575bn)
  • UK Inward FDI £1,199 bn

UK in World Rankings of Trade & Investment

  • 3rd in World Ranking of Global Investors - USA, Hong Kong, UK, Japan, Germany, China, France, Netherlands, Canada, Switzerland
  • 4th in World Ranking of Global Destinations for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - USA, Hong Kong, China, UK, Singapore, Canada, Ireland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany
  • 4th in World Ranking for Exports of Goods & Services - China, USA, Germany, UK, Japan, France
  • 4th in World Ranking for Imports of Goods & Services - USA, China, Germany, UK, Japan, France
  • 2nd in World Ranking for Exports of Services & 5th in World Ranking for Exports of Goods

UK's Top 10 Trading & Investment Partners

  • Trading Partners (total value of exports + imports) - USA, Germany, Netherlands, France, Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Italy, Switzerland
  • Export Markets in Goods & Services - USA, Germany, France, Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, Italy, China, Belgium, Spain
  • Import Markets in Goods & Services - Germany, USA, Netherlands, China, France, Spain, Belgium, Italy, Ireland, Norway
  • Destinations for UK Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - USA, Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Hong Kong, Spain, Ireland, UK Offshore CD's and OT's, Australia, Switzerland
  • Inward FDI Investors to UK - USA, Netherlands, Luxembourg, UK Offshore Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, Spain, Belgium

UK's Top 10 Trading Partners by Trade Surplus and Trade Deficit

  • Trade Surpluses - USA, Switzerland, Ireland, UAE, Australia, Saudi, Singapore, Sweden, Kazakhstan, Oman
  • Trade Deficits - Germany, China, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Poland, Italy, India, France

UK Trade Profile

  • Top 10 Export Goods - Mechanical machinery, cars, electrical machinery, pharmaceutical, crude oil, aircraft, manufactured, scientific, refined oils, general
  • Top 10 Import Goods - Electrical machinery, mechanical machinery, cars, manufactured, pharma, road vehicles, clothing, refined oils, crude oil, scientific
  • Top 5 Export Services - Business services, financial, travel, transport, telecommunications, computers & information
  • Top 5 Import Services - Travel, business services, transport, telecoms, computer & info, financial

How will the Global Economic Order Change by 2050 ?

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf

This brilliant report by PWC sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.

Its key results of analysis include:

  • The world economy may double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements
  • Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average
  • 6 of the 7 largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
  • The US could be in 3rd place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27's share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050
  • UK may be in10th place by 2050, France may be out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively
  • But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions, business integrity and infrastructure significantly if they are to realise their long-term growth potential.

UK on top

  • The UK comes out on top of the so-called G7 club of major advanced economies in terms of projected growth rates, even though it slips a place to tenth between now and 2050 in the global league table based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for price differences and buying power in each country.

Emerging E7 Market Dominance

  • PwC believes the so-called "E7" group consisting of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey could be double the size of the G7 club of the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US by 2040.

Source Office for National Statistics https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/publications

90% of all Future Economic Growth will occur outside the EU 

Source : https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/group-seven-g7

Quite a thought

"While the exact extent and timing of these shifts is subject to considerable uncertainty, the general direction of change is clear," PwC said.We contend that the UK will become the largest economy in Europe and outstrip Germany by 2050 on the basis of its economic independence, enhanced global economic engagement and population increase.

Sources :

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Friday, 17 August 2018